Socy 441: Exercise 2

Sociology 441: Stratification

Exercise #2: comparing trends in U.S. Society

The purpose of this exercise is to evaluate a common assertion about welfare payments to single mothers (i.e., Aid to Families with Dependent Children -- AFDC): that welfare encourages single parenthood. This idea has been part of the thinking behind the recent legislation to drastically reduce levels of welfare payments.

Our first test of this causal theory will use our now familiar test of looking at trends over time. Is it true that years in which welfare was high are years in which single motherhood was high? (Our second test will look at comparisons across states -- see exercise 3).

First you need to find trend data on changes in welfare, especially Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC). Then find trends in single motherhood. Then evaluate whether the trends match. For the paper, present the data concisely and state your conclusion. Be clear whether the data support or don't support the theory.

You can again use the Statistical Abstract of the United States as the source for these trends. (You might also find data in your textbook or on the 441 web, but the point here is to find data from original sources, not from texts.) The most recent annual edition is available in the reference section of any library. The web address (for Adobe Acrobat Reader) is: http://www.census.gov/statab/www

Unfortunately, finding the most appropriate data for these two trends is not easy. You will need to hunt awhile for evidence that is most relevant to evaluating this causal theory. Then, you will probably need to process the data a little rather than just report it exactly as you found it. For instance, the welfare data on AFDC could be either:

average AFDC expenditures per family, or
proportion of families enrolled in AFDC, or
total national expenditures.

Any of these could be argued to be relevant for evaluating the theory. You should report just one of these -- your choice. But several of the tables that report trends in AFDC dollars do not adjust for inflation; that is, they do not report constant dollar expenditures. Without adjusting for inflation, any dollar trend is worthless since the numbers would naturally grow in the late 1970s and early 1980s but only because of inflation, not because more real dollars were being spent. So, if you find a dollar trend that is not adjusted for inflation, you will have to do that yourself by dividing the numbers by the consumer price index which I have organized in a separate table you can pull up.

For trends about the consequence, single parenthood, you also have several alternatives, among them:

Proportion of children living in single parent families
Proportion of children born to unmarried mothers
Fertility rates of unmarried mothers
Divorce and/or separation rates for mothers

Again, hunt around for one of these or something else that's relevant to testing the thesis. But make sure you use rates not just numbers of people. For some tables in the Statistical Abstract, they report the relevant numbers, but you may have to do the arithmetic to get the rate.

After all this hunting (and maybe some calculating), remember to present your evidence and your conclusion briefly and concisely. (One student suggested showing your exercise to your roommate or partner -- if they can understand your point, then you probably have done it right!)

... and don't forget the citation(s) to the source(s) sufficient so somebody else could find it. Due: Monday, April 10

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Last updated March 3, 2000
comments to: Reeve Vanneman. reeve@cwmills.umd.edu